Chapter Six: The Optimism Bias
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”
—Winston Churchill
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D o you see the glass as half empty or half full?
The glass and its contents are constant, while your answer to that question reveals your attitudes and perceptions.
The lens through which we view the world matters. And it absolutely matters in leadership.
Optimism bias guides our perception through a filter of positivity, urging us to believe that good things are more likely to happen than bad things.
This mental shortcut urges optimistic leaders to overestimate the likelihood of expected positive outcomes, and to underestimate the results of risky decisions and the probability of negative outcomes.
Optimism bias produces an overly optimistic outlook, even when evidence suggests otherwise.
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In this chapter we explore Optimism bias through the lens of Captains of Sails - dream pursuers and destiny makers.
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“What I’ve really learned over time is that optimism is a very, very important part of leadership.”
—Bob Iger, CEO, Walt Disney Company
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Navigating Optimism Bias
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Know your Knots
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Can I recall a situation where my optimism about an initiative’s success led to unforeseen challenges? How did I handle it, and what did I learn?
Do I exhibit overconfidence in my own abilities or the abilities of my team, assuming that we can overcome obstacles easily?
Do I proactively develop contingency plans or risk mitigation strategies for potential negative outcomes, or do I assume things will go as I imagine?
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THE BOTTOM LINE
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When you can't beat them, you join them!
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The Strategy Equation:
Optimism Bias + Pessimism Bias = The Dream "Ketcher" Model
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Shifts the sails from unrestrained optimism to rational optimism, empowering the realistic achievement of dreams and outcomes.
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Learn how to harness the force of cognitive and emotional biases to work for you instead of against you.
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You'll find navigation techniques and strategies to manage the Optimism bias for the leader, and for the organization
in Mind Knots
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Adapted from Mind Knots
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