Illusion of Control
The Illusion of Control bias occurs when individuals overestimate their ability to control or influence events and outcomes that are largely determined by chance or external factors.
This bias influences leaders to believe they have more control over events than they actually do, swaying them to make decisions based on a false sense of control, often resulting in unrealistic optimism, poor decision-making and often, bad outcomes.
Impact on LEADERSHIP AND BUSINESS
Treasure:
In leadership, the “treasure” of the illusion of control bias can provide leaders with a sense of confidence and motivation, and it encourages proactive behavior.
When leaders believe they have the ability to control outcomes, they may be more likely to take risks and pursue bold initiatives, which can lead to innovative and positive results.
Risk:
The “risk” however, is that this bias can lead to overconfidence and a failure to recognize the limits of one’s influence and authority.
When leaders overestimate their ability to control outcomes, they may make poor decisions, ignore important information, and overlook potential risks and challenges.
An overreliance on the illusion of control bias can result in leaders failing to prepare for potential risks, setbacks and unexpected events, which can negatively impact their ability to lead effectively.
KNOW YOUR KNOTS - Learn to recognize when the Illusion of Control is taking the lead.
Ask yourself:
Do I believe I can control outcomes beyond my influence?
Am I overconfident in my abilities to influence situations?
Do I take excessive risks based on perceived control?
Have I been surprised by unpredictable outcomes?
STRATEGIES to manage this bias: Pause – Perspective – Practice – Progress
Pause:
Ask yourself if you tend to believe that you have control over outcomes even when they are predominantly determined by luck or external factors.
Consider whether you are overly confident in your abilities to change or influence situations, especially when there is limited room for control.
Reflect on whether you take unnecessary risks or make decisions based on a false belief in your ability to control outcomes.
Think about times when you were surprised by unpredictable outcomes despite your belief in your control.
Perspective:
Include team members and other appropriate individuals who may provide input, advice and a more objective view.
Practice:
Conduct decision audits to learn from successes and failures, especially failures due to an illusion of control.
Establish a realistic risk assessment approach for the leadership team and the organization to help leaders differentiate between situations where they have control and those where external factors dominate.
Use data and evidence in decision-making and rely on evidence and analysis when making choices rather than relying solely on a perceived sense of control.
Develop and implement risk mitigation strategies for situations where the illusion of control bias might be at play - including setting limits on resource allocation in uncertain situations.
Progress:
Promote humility and the recognition of one’s limitations. Acknowledge that there are situations beyond one’s control.
Provide education and training on the illusion of control bias to help individuals across the organization to recognize this bias in themselves and in their decision-making, and to manage it.
It’s important for leaders to be aware of the illusion of control bias and to make a conscious effort to assess their own level of control and influence over outcomes. Then they can reduce the risk of overconfidence and ensure that their decisions and actions are grounded in a realistic understanding of their ability to control outcomes.